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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But the latest competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still